How a manager can make his forecasting technique more effective?

Now a days management techniques are more demanding, as soon as global boundaries are finished due to it, and approach to each and every part of the world become easy, challenges are also increased in managing organization. He will not stick to the old fashioned technique in decision making but he will use the up to date technique to resolve problem and forecasting. He will use rational model for forecasting, so he will go through all steps and having complete knowledge and command of the problem so he might have alternatives.

First he will identify the problem. Second he will categorize the problem, either is it crisis, non crisis or opportunity problem? Third, he/she weigh the problem according to importance. Then, develop the alternative, in case of plan change he will use alternative.