Two ridges of high pressure are driving Florence with one to the north, and one to the south. Each of these high-pressure ridges produces a clockwise circulation of air, so that could steer Florence farther west, and closer to the East Coast, instead of out to sea. Even if Florence remains far offshore, it will generate substantial ocean swells along the Jersey shore, and the rest of the Eastern seaboard.
Depending upon the set-up of the high-pressure ridges, Florence could linger offshore for a while. Florence could make a direct hit on the Carolinas or other parts of the Mid Atlantic, then move inland. After hurricanes make landfall, they still pack a lot of tropical moisture.
